George W. Bush will probably be the last white U.S. President, if not forever, for a very long time. I don't know why it took me so long to figure it out, or why I haven't heard anyone talking about this. Obama is getting 95% or more of the African-American vote. African-Americans are over represented in Democratic primaries. Black turnout during the primaries was very high. That's why Hillary didn't really have a chance, once Obama was considered a serious candidate.
As far as the general election. In some states Obama's 95% or more of the black vote is enough to carry with the same turnout among African-Americans as four years ago, e.g. South Carolina. In some swing states, such as Ohio and Florida, Obama needs only to raise turnout among blacks 5 or 10% percent to ensure victory, according to Rasmussen. I would bet my right arm that turnout among blacks will be up by more than that, and I can hardly blame them.
I joke that I try to look surprised, when I see an African-American with an Obama shirt on. Of course if I were black, and had a chance to vote for someone who looked like me, after my people had been treated so poorly for the bulk of American history, I'd be in line the night before the polls opened.
Now that the black minority realizes it's power, they should put an African-American in the race every four years. They will win every four years.
Someday, in 20, 50 or 100 years, blacks in America may feel comfortable enough to stop voting monolithically. Maybe both parties will run black candidates, forcing African-Americans to make a choice. By that time however, Hispanics will be numerous enough to elect their own president, if they have learned from Obama's election.
Should be interesting to watch. Maybe Bush will be remembered for more than being a disaster. He'll be the answer to a trivia question: Who was America's last white president?
1 comment:
You never have to bet against me. Friends and allies. Just hedge, like a prudent adult.
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